How to Use PokerCruncher to Analyze Hand Histories

August 13, 2018
Cash Game

PokerCruncher is an equity calculator for mac. It’s similar to Flopzilla and PioSolver, but those programs don’t work on macs. Here’s a tutorial on how to use PokerCruncher to analyze hand histories with examples from $1/2 cash games.

Calculating equity of overcards and flush draw

$110 effective stacks. I’m the short stack (after losing $90 on the previous hand)

I had been playing very tight in this session but also fairly passive. I believe I only double barreled once over the course of about four hours. I had a pretty good image though - lost a few small pots but won more mid-size pots.

I’m UTG with Ad Kd. I raise to $12. That was the largest pre-flop raise that I had made in this session, aside from a re-raise that I made and then folded after getting re-raised. $12 was only a slightly above average pre-flop raise for this game though.

UTG +2 (villain), a good, aggressive player, calls. The cut off, a pretty loose player, calls. Button, a tight player calls. Blinds fold.

4 to the flop. $51 in the pot. I’m first to act. Flop comes:

9d 5d 3c

I have the nut flush draw and two over cards. At this point, the only information I have about villain’s hand is that it was good enough to call my pre-flop raise. I estimated his range as shown on the right side of the screenshot below to see what my equity would be:

Even though I didn’t hit a King or an Ace or a flush or a straight draw, I have 70.31% equity against his range! This is also a modest assumption given that he’d probably re-raise preflop with AA or KK most of the time.

I probably should have bet here, but I checked. Again, I had rarely double barreled, and I believe villain may have taken advantage of that in the previous hand, and given my stack size and it being a four way pot, my plan was to check call in hopes of seeing a free card.

Villain then bets $20 into the $51 pot. This was a smaller sizing than what I had seen him do previously but I didn’t think too much about it because I felt like I was in good shape.

Other two players fold back to me. Based on this new information, I re-calculate his range. Now I narrow him down to 9x (top pair), over pairs, sets, and some over cards (particularly relevant if they have backdoor straight or flush draws).

I’m still ahead with 67.16% equity. Less if 98o is in his range of calling a $12 pre-flop bet from a UTG player and betting the flop into 3 opponents, 2 of which are left to act.  

Now that I know this, I should have check-shoved. I could have folded out better hands, such as Q9 and 88, some of the time. I can also get called by some lower flush draws. Also, I might not get paid later if I hit my flush draw, an Ace, or a King.

I called. Pot is now $91. I’m down to $78 in chips.

Turn is 10s.

That helps 1010 and over cards with a 10. It also help some of those backdoor straight draws. Overall, I’m not too worried though.

I check again. In retrospect, I knew he’s an aggressive player and is almost definitely betting here. So I may as well bet to represent an over pair or make him pay to draw.

He has me covered so he bets all in.

My range assumptions for him at this point pretty much stay the same, but now I have fewer board card opportunities to make a hand.

I have slightly less than 50% equity based on the range I put him on on the flop, so I do have the pot odds to call if I believe he has that many bluffs here. But now that he’s shoved all in, It’s less likely he’s bluffing with over cards. I adjusted his range, based on this new information, to 9x, 10x, over pairs, sets and open ended straight draws (QJ):

With this range, I’m down to 33.93% equity. If I take out the QJ open ended straight draws, I’m down to 29.07% equity.

The pot is $91 + my remaining $78 = $169. So that’s $78 to win $169, which is 2.17 to 1 or 32%. Pot odds are pretty close to my equity and I have plenty of outs.

I call.

River is Qh.

I miss.

He shows 98 off suite, no diamonds.

I was surprised he called pre-flop given my tight image. But given he had just won a large pot from me, had position, and probably had me figured out since I had been playing so straight forward throughout the session, I don’t blame him. I was somewhat surprised he double barreled, but again given my previously passive play and the fact that I could easily be on a flush draw, I don’t blame him.

Overall, I think I should have either c-bet or check raised all in on the flop.

Now let’s look at another example: calculating a pre-flop calling decision.

Does it ever make sense to fold KK preflop?

UTG, a loose aggressive player, raises to $15. Above average raise size for this game, but not crazy.

UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, UTG+3 folds.

I’m in the hijack. I have KK. There’s $48 in the pot. I’m pretty excited!

I re-raise to $55.

Cutoff folds, Button folds.

Small blind, good aggressive player, calls.

I had a tight image, so I was a little surprised, but he was a good player, and it makes sense to me that he would obviously call with 1010+, AK, and maybe some suited broadways.

Big blind folds.

UTG shoves all in to $253!

Folds to me. $198 more for me to call. I have about $205 in chips.

I think he has Aces. Does he really think me or the small blind could have anything less than JJ given the action so far? He’s gotta think we would call with most of those hands.

PokerCruncher says I’d have 18.07% equity against all combos of AA.

pokercruncher

What about pot odds? There was $158 in the pot before he shoved, plus $198 = $356. So $198 to win $356. That’s 1.79 to 1 or 35.7%. I don’t have the right pot odds to call if he definitely has AA. But of course I don’t know for sure that he has AA.  

He was a fairly aggressive player, so maybe he has AK suited or QQ or some random suited connector bluff. He was a pretty good player though, so I still think he has AA, but here’s what my equity looks like if he does this with the other KK, the remaining AKs combos, and 25% of QQ:

If I believe this is his range in this spot, I actually have the right pot odds to call. In addition, the small blind might be pot committed (or up to gamble), and he probably would have shoved if he had aces, so he might call with worse. He’d be looking at a pot size of $158 + $198 + $198 = $554. $198 to win $554 = 2.79 to 1. I don’t think he’d call though.

I tank for a minute, try to get a read on him, and then fold.

Small blind folds and shows JJ.

UTG takes it down without seeing a flop and shows AA.

Obviously my read was correct in this case, but I know it won’t always be, so I might have had pot odds to try to suck out.

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